25/03/2024: This Week Ahead in Gold & Silver Markets:
📆 Tuesday, 26th of March: U.S. Consumer Confidence:
On Tuesday, all eyes will be on the release of US Consumer Confidence figures. Any unexpected increase in consumer confidence could potentially signal a stronger economy, leading to increased investor optimism and a possible boost in equities. However, if the figures remain unchanged or disappoint, it may trigger a flight to safe-haven assets like gold and silver, driving their prices higher amidst economic uncertainty. Analysts expect this reading to come in unchanged from the previous months figure of 106.7.
📆 Wednesday, 27th of March: E.U. Consumer Confidence:
European Consumer Confidence is projected to follow in the U.S. footsteps and remain unchanged. If the actual figures surpass expectations, it may contribute to a positive market outlook, potentially dampening the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold and silver. However, any signs of economic instability or geopolitical tensions could prompt investors to seek refuge in precious metals, bolstering their prices.
📆 Thursday, 28th of March: U.S. & U.K. GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI:
The second reading of U.S. GDP will provide valuable insights into the health of the US economy. A significant deviation from the preliminary GDP estimate of 3.2% could spark market volatility, impacting investor sentiment towards risk assets and safe-havens alike. This expected figure is down from the previous quarter’s 4.9%.
In the U.K., GDP data is also being released on Thursday. The economy was expected to contract 0.3% in Q4. Similarly to the U.S., any deviation from expectations will cause a reaction in the markets.
U.S. initial jobless claims, also released on Thursday, is set to show an increase from the previous weeks figure of 210,000. Data is set to show an increase in jobless claims by 4,000 to 214,000. An increase in this figure suggests that more people are losing their jobs or experiencing job market instability. It is seen as an indicator of weakness in the labor market, which is generally good for gold and silver markets.
Additionally, the Chicago PMI will offer further clues on how well the US is adapting to higher interest rates, potentially influencing precious metals prices based on market perceptions of economic stability.
📆 Friday, 29th of March: U.S. PCE, FED Chair Powell Speaks:
The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, will be closely monitored by investors. Any deviation from the forecasted 0.4% headline and 0.3% month-on-month increase could signal potential shifts in monetary policy. A miss in inflation expectations may strengthen the case for an earlier-than-expected rate cut, which could undermine the U.S. dollar and boost the appeal of gold and silver as inflation hedges.
Additionally, FED Chair Powell’s remarks on Friday will be closely listened to for any hints regarding future monetary policy decisions. Any commentary suggesting a dovish stance or concerns about economic headwinds could positively impact precious metals prices.
Overall Outlook:
Key events such as US Consumer Confidence, GDP data, inflation figures, and speeches by Central Bank officials could significantly influence investor sentiment and precious metals prices. Gold is currently trending higher for the first day of the trading week, after closing the previous week 0.43% higher.
